| last_updated | 2026-08-06 |
|---|
These are the top 100 returning-player preseason values from the completed 2025-26 Gaussian-error RAPM fit with a Student-t talent prior. They are 2026-27 priors, not retrospective 2025-26 evaluations.
The table is sortable by every column. 2025-26 adjustment is the completed-season movement from the prior that entered 2025-26. Low-exposure players remain in the ranking; interpret their values alongside possessions.
Source model: Student-t Talent-Prior RAPM.
Immutable artifact: artifacts/models/student_t_talent_forward_rapm/2025-26/student-t-talent-forward-rapm-2025-26-20260806T203508Z-8e8a2698.
| Rank | 2026-27 RAPM prior | Player | Pos. | 2025-26 preseason prior | 2025-26 adjustment | 2025-26 possessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +13.84 | Victor Wembanyama | F-C | +1.70 | +12.14 | 3,896 |
| 2 | +11.91 | Nikola Jokić | C | +10.61 | +1.30 | 4,786 |
| 3 | +10.32 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | G | +8.36 | +1.96 | 4,730 |
| 4 | +8.07 | Kawhi Leonard | F | +3.65 | +4.42 | 4,167 |
| 5 | +7.89 | Joel Embiid | C-F | +8.10 | -0.21 | 2,479 |
| 6 | +7.82 | Jimmy Butler III | F | +6.55 | +1.27 | 2,449 |
| 7 | +7.80 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | F | +6.86 | +0.94 | 2,129 |
| 8 | +7.34 | Bam Adebayo | C-F | +2.45 | +4.89 | 5,031 |
| 9 | +7.07 | Stephen Curry | G | +8.64 | -1.57 | 2,822 |
| 10 | +7.01 | Derrick White | G | +2.51 | +4.50 | 5,180 |
| 11 | +6.47 | Chet Holmgren | C-F | +2.42 | +4.05 | 4,129 |
| 12 | +6.44 | Donovan Mitchell | G | +5.42 | +1.02 | 4,925 |
| 13 | +6.35 | Dyson Daniels | G | +0.34 | +6.01 | 5,317 |
| 14 | +5.97 | Devin Booker | G | +3.65 | +2.32 | 4,442 |
| 15 | +5.97 | Alex Caruso | G | +4.17 | +1.79 | 2,125 |
| 16 | +5.25 | Cade Cunningham | G | +2.08 | +3.17 | 4,490 |
| 17 | +5.24 | Jrue Holiday | G | +4.15 | +1.09 | 3,295 |
| 18 | +5.21 | Moussa Diabaté | F | -2.19 | +7.40 | 3,790 |
| 19 | +5.06 | Lauri Markkanen | F-C | +2.36 | +2.71 | 3,080 |
| 20 | +5.01 | Marcus Smart | G | +2.16 | +2.85 | 3,607 |
| 21 | +4.90 | Jayson Tatum | F-G | +4.87 | +0.03 | 1,046 |
| 22 | +4.83 | Pascal Siakam | F | +4.75 | +0.08 | 4,322 |
| 23 | +4.75 | Luka Dončić | F-G | +4.54 | +0.21 | 4,759 |
| 24 | +4.58 | Jarrett Allen | C | +4.37 | +0.21 | 3,191 |
| 25 | +4.47 | Collin Gillespie | G | -0.27 | +4.73 | 4,626 |
| 26 | +4.32 | Rudy Gobert | C | +4.30 | +0.02 | 4,951 |
| 27 | +4.30 | Aaron Gordon | F | +3.18 | +1.12 | 2,057 |
| 28 | +4.22 | OG Anunoby | F-G | +2.66 | +1.57 | 4,531 |
| 29 | +4.13 | Neemias Queta | C | -2.33 | +6.46 | 3,752 |
| 30 | +4.12 | Karl-Anthony Towns | C-F | +4.29 | -0.17 | 4,716 |
| 31 | +4.06 | Franz Wagner | F | +4.74 | -0.68 | 2,190 |
| 32 | +4.03 | Chris Paul | G | +7.17 | -3.14 | 457 |
| 33 | +4.02 | Jalen Smith | F-C | -0.25 | +4.28 | 2,316 |
| 34 | +3.90 | CJ McCollum | G | +1.01 | +2.89 | 4,762 |
| 35 | +3.58 | Ausar Thompson | G-F | +0.61 | +2.98 | 3,897 |
| 36 | +3.58 | Paul George | F | +5.63 | -2.05 | 2,328 |
| 37 | +3.53 | Devin Vassell | G-F | -2.50 | +6.03 | 4,258 |
| 38 | +3.49 | LaMelo Ball | G | +0.78 | +2.72 | 4,101 |
| 39 | +3.46 | Kevin Durant | F | +3.21 | +0.25 | 5,732 |
| 40 | +3.36 | Amen Thompson | G-F | +0.83 | +2.53 | 5,936 |
| 41 | +3.35 | Herbert Jones | F | +2.59 | +0.75 | 3,289 |
| 42 | +3.29 | Zach Edey | C | +0.41 | +2.88 | 588 |
| 43 | +3.22 | Kevin Huerter | G-F | +1.83 | +1.39 | 3,244 |
| 44 | +3.22 | Michael Porter Jr. | F | +0.59 | +2.63 | 3,396 |
| 45 | +3.19 | Davion Mitchell | G | +0.29 | +2.90 | 4,265 |
| 46 | +3.15 | Jamal Shead | G | -2.72 | +5.87 | 3,778 |
| 47 | +3.15 | Jalen Brunson | G | +3.27 | -0.12 | 5,240 |
| 48 | +3.13 | Isaiah Hartenstein | C-F | +2.04 | +1.09 | 2,340 |
| 49 | +3.08 | Anthony Davis | F-C | +3.64 | -0.56 | 1,296 |
| 50 | +3.07 | Julius Randle | F-C | +2.38 | +0.69 | 5,470 |
| 51 | +3.06 | Brandon Miller | F | -0.86 | +3.92 | 3,968 |
| 52 | +3.03 | Josh Green | G | -1.77 | +4.81 | 1,804 |
| 53 | +2.91 | Steven Adams | C | +0.86 | +2.06 | 1,455 |
| 54 | +2.82 | Tobias Harris | F | +2.02 | +0.80 | 3,604 |
| 55 | +2.68 | Kyle Lowry | G | +4.22 | -1.54 | 251 |
| 56 | +2.68 | Ja Morant | G | +3.84 | -1.17 | 1,238 |
| 57 | +2.67 | Hugo González | G | -2.10 | +4.78 | 2,133 |
| 58 | +2.64 | Jaren Jackson Jr. | F-C | +3.65 | -1.01 | 3,071 |
| 59 | +2.64 | Evan Mobley | C | +2.37 | +0.27 | 4,315 |
| 60 | +2.61 | Desmond Bane | G | +0.85 | +1.76 | 5,768 |
| 61 | +2.56 | Kon Knueppel | G-F | -0.28 | +2.85 | 5,207 |
| 62 | +2.53 | James Harden | G | +5.88 | -3.36 | 4,936 |
| 63 | +2.50 | Wendell Carter Jr. | C-F | +1.34 | +1.16 | 4,768 |
| 64 | +2.49 | Clint Capela | C | +1.52 | +0.97 | 1,847 |
| 65 | +2.48 | Jalen Duren | C | +0.01 | +2.47 | 4,080 |
| 66 | +2.46 | LeBron James | F | +5.43 | -2.97 | 4,077 |
| 67 | +2.41 | Cedric Coward | G | -0.63 | +3.04 | 3,386 |
| 68 | +2.25 | Jakob Poeltl | C | +3.29 | -1.04 | 2,355 |
| 69 | +2.22 | De'Anthony Melton | G | +0.79 | +1.43 | 2,311 |
| 70 | +2.21 | Miles McBride | G | -0.57 | +2.77 | 2,172 |
| 71 | +2.15 | Aaron Holiday | G | +1.54 | +0.61 | 1,579 |
| 72 | +2.15 | Donte DiVincenzo | G | -1.40 | +3.55 | 5,223 |
| 73 | +2.07 | Julian Champagnie | F | -2.65 | +4.72 | 4,745 |
| 74 | +2.06 | Joe Ingles | F-G | +2.99 | -0.94 | 338 |
| 75 | +2.02 | Kevin Love | F-C | +2.17 | -0.15 | 1,306 |
| 76 | +2.02 | Scottie Barnes | F-G | -0.33 | +2.35 | 5,512 |
| 77 | +1.97 | Dwight Powell | F-C | +0.95 | +1.01 | 1,906 |
| 78 | +1.95 | Immanuel Quickley | G | +2.21 | -0.26 | 4,561 |
| 79 | +1.92 | Jalen Suggs | G | +0.37 | +1.55 | 3,370 |
| 80 | +1.92 | Svi Mykhailiuk | G-F | +0.15 | +1.77 | 2,453 |
| 81 | +1.91 | Al Horford | C-F | +4.13 | -2.22 | 1,986 |
| 82 | +1.90 | Cameron Johnson | F | +1.20 | +0.70 | 3,421 |
| 83 | +1.89 | Jusuf Nurkić | C | +2.13 | -0.25 | 2,334 |
| 84 | +1.82 | Duncan Robinson | F | -1.08 | +2.90 | 4,362 |
| 85 | +1.79 | Nickeil Alexander-Walker | G | +0.45 | +1.34 | 5,561 |
| 86 | +1.76 | Zion Williamson | F | +1.66 | +0.11 | 3,885 |
| 87 | +1.68 | Dillon Brooks | G-F | +3.41 | -1.73 | 3,505 |
| 88 | +1.66 | Isaiah Joe | G | +1.57 | +0.09 | 3,108 |
| 89 | +1.64 | Aaron Nesmith | G-F | +1.74 | -0.10 | 2,809 |
| 90 | +1.62 | Obi Toppin | F | +0.73 | +0.89 | 901 |
| 91 | +1.53 | Tyrese Maxey | G | -0.77 | +2.30 | 5,494 |
| 92 | +1.47 | Grant Williams | F | -1.09 | +2.56 | 1,438 |
| 93 | +1.46 | Austin Reaves | G | -1.14 | +2.59 | 3,626 |
| 94 | +1.42 | Tim Hardaway Jr. | G-F | +1.62 | -0.20 | 4,401 |
| 95 | +1.42 | Josh Giddey | G | +1.52 | -0.10 | 3,706 |
| 96 | +1.42 | Jalen Williams | G-F | +1.06 | +0.36 | 1,965 |
| 97 | +1.41 | Robert Williams III | C-F | -1.17 | +2.57 | 2,109 |
| 98 | +1.40 | Jamal Murray | G | +0.15 | +1.25 | 5,443 |
| 99 | +1.40 | Payton Pritchard | G | +0.32 | +1.08 | 5,014 |
| 100 | +1.39 | Javonte Green | G | -1.06 | +2.45 | 3,026 |