Merge pull request #294 from ModelMirrorAI/predict/scotus-1001703-evt-petition-disposition-codex-baseline-20260629T090631Z

predict(codex-baseline): scotus/1001703 — evt-petition-disposition

Author: modelmirror

data/cases/scotus/1001703/events/evt-petition-disposition/event.yaml

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+case_id: scotus/1001703
+decision_target: disposition
+description: null
+docket_entry_id: null
+event_id: evt-petition-disposition
+kind: petition
+opened_at: null
+resolved: false
+schema_version: '1.0'
+title: Sanders v. Ohio

data/cases/scotus/1001703/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/codex-baseline/20260629T090631Z/prediction.json

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+{
+  "case_id": "scotus/1001703",
+  "confidence": 0.55,
+  "created_at": "2026-06-29T09:13:34Z",
+  "engine": "codex",
+  "event_id": "evt-petition-disposition",
+  "granted": 0,
+  "input_snapshot": "data/cases/scotus/1001703/record/snapshots/2026-06-29.json",
+  "model": null,
+  "predicted_disposition": "denied",
+  "predictor_id": "codex-baseline",
+  "probability": 0.02,
+  "reasoning_doc": "reasoning.md",
+  "run_id": "20260629T090631Z",
+  "schema_version": "1.0",
+  "votes": []
+}

data/cases/scotus/1001703/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/codex-baseline/20260629T090631Z/reasoning.md

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+# Prediction: Sanders v. Ohio
+
+## Legal Question
+
+The event asks how the Supreme Court will dispose of the petition in Carlos Sanders v. Ohio, docket 01-8551, on review from the Supreme Court of Ohio.
+
+## Governing Standard
+
+Supreme Court review by certiorari is discretionary. A grant normally requires an important federal question, a conflict among lower courts or state courts of last resort, a serious departure from accepted judicial practice, or another reason making plenary review warranted. Most petitions are denied without recorded merits votes.
+
+## Snapshot Facts Used
+
+I used the provisioned snapshot at `data/cases/scotus/1001703/record/snapshots/2026-06-29.json`. The snapshot identifies the case as Carlos Sanders v. Ohio, Supreme Court docket 01-8551, filed on February 25, 2002, appealed from the Supreme Court of Ohio. It lists no docket entries, no panel, no argument date, no cert grant date, no cert denial date, and no termination date. The event definition describes an unresolved petition-disposition event with no additional description.
+
+## Reasoning
+
+The available record gives no affirmative indicator that the petition presents the kind of conflict, national importance, or procedural posture that would make a cert grant likely. The ordinary base rate for certiorari petitions strongly favors denial, and the snapshot contains no docket activity suggesting a grant, argument, rehearing, dismissal, withdrawal, or partial grant. Because the source record is unusually sparse and old, I assign only modest confidence: the absence of disposition fields may reflect incomplete metadata rather than a live merits signal. Even with that caveat, the conservative forecast is that the petition will be denied.
+
+I predict `denied`, with P(granted) = 0.02. I do not predict individual votes because Supreme Court cert denials generally do not disclose judge-by-judge votes and the snapshot provides no vote-specific information.

data/cases/scotus/1001703/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/codex-baseline/20260629T090631Z/usage.json

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+{
+  "actor_id": "codex-baseline",
+  "cache_creation_input_tokens": 0,
+  "cache_read_input_tokens": 413312,
+  "case_id": "scotus/1001703",
+  "created_at": "2026-06-29T09:06:31Z",
+  "engine": "codex",
+  "estimated_cost_usd": 0.591616,
+  "event_id": "evt-petition-disposition",
+  "input_tokens": 43248,
+  "model": "gpt-5.5",
+  "output_tokens": 5624,
+  "role": "predictor",
+  "run_id": "20260629T090631Z",
+  "schema_version": "1.0"
+}