Merge pull request #277 from ModelMirrorAI/predict/scotus-1001371-evt-petition-disposition-codex-baseline-20260629T020846Z

predict(codex-baseline): scotus/1001371 — evt-petition-disposition

Author: modelmirror

data/cases/scotus/1001371/events/evt-petition-disposition/event.yaml

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+case_id: scotus/1001371
+decision_target: disposition
+description: null
+docket_entry_id: null
+event_id: evt-petition-disposition
+kind: petition
+opened_at: null
+resolved: false
+schema_version: '1.0'
+title: Lacoste v. Department of Conservation of La.

data/cases/scotus/1001371/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/codex-baseline/20260629T020846Z/prediction.json

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+{
+  "case_id": "scotus/1001371",
+  "confidence": 0.55,
+  "created_at": "2026-06-29T02:17:14Z",
+  "engine": "codex",
+  "event_id": "evt-petition-disposition",
+  "granted": 0,
+  "input_snapshot": "data/cases/scotus/1001371/record/snapshots/2026-06-29.json",
+  "model": null,
+  "predicted_disposition": "denied",
+  "predictor_id": "codex-baseline",
+  "probability": 0.03,
+  "reasoning_doc": "reasoning.md",
+  "run_id": "20260629T020846Z",
+  "schema_version": "1.0",
+  "votes": []
+}

data/cases/scotus/1001371/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/codex-baseline/20260629T020846Z/reasoning.md

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+# Prediction Reasoning
+
+## Legal Question
+
+The event asks for the disposition of the case-level petition event in `Lacoste v. Department of Conservation of La.`, Supreme Court docket `65`. I interpret `granted` as a disposition granting the petition or equivalent petition relief; denied, dismissed, withdrawn, or other non-grant dispositions count as not granted.
+
+## Governing Standard
+
+Supreme Court petition review is discretionary. A petition is typically granted only when the case presents an important federal question, a meaningful conflict among lower courts, or another reason for Supreme Court intervention. Without affirmative indicators of such a posture, the baseline expectation for a petition disposition is denial.
+
+## Snapshot Facts Used
+
+The input snapshot was `data/cases/scotus/1001371/record/snapshots/2026-06-29.json`.
+
+Relevant facts from the snapshot:
+
+- Court: Supreme Court of the United States.
+- Case name: `Lacoste v. Department of Conservation of La.`; short name `Lacoste`.
+- Docket number: `65`.
+- The snapshot has no docket entries, no filing date, no argument date, no termination date, no lower-court metadata, and no panel information.
+- Both `date_cert_granted` and `date_cert_denied` are null.
+- The snapshot includes one associated opinion cluster, but it does not identify the petition disposition or provide a cert-grant date.
+- The event definition marks this as an unresolved petition-disposition event.
+
+## Reasoning
+
+The snapshot does not contain a docket-entry signal of a grant, a cert-grant date, argument setting, lower-court conflict description, or any other case-specific fact that would overcome the usual Supreme Court petition baseline. The non-empty cluster field gives some caution because it suggests the case has associated opinion material, but the event to predict is still unresolved in the provided event definition and the snapshot does not tie that cluster to a granted petition disposition.
+
+I therefore predict that the petition disposition will be denied. I assign `P(granted) = 0.03`: low because the ordinary petition baseline and the lack of grant indicators point toward denial, but slightly above the lowest baseline because the snapshot is sparse and contains an associated cluster that could reflect historical merits material not otherwise explained in the docket fields.
+
+No per-Justice votes are predicted because the snapshot provides no vote information and petition-stage votes are not fully disclosed in ordinary docket data.

data/cases/scotus/1001371/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/codex-baseline/20260629T020846Z/usage.json

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+{
+  "actor_id": "codex-baseline",
+  "cache_creation_input_tokens": 0,
+  "cache_read_input_tokens": 664320,
+  "case_id": "scotus/1001371",
+  "created_at": "2026-06-29T02:08:46Z",
+  "engine": "codex",
+  "estimated_cost_usd": 0.935585,
+  "event_id": "evt-petition-disposition",
+  "input_tokens": 77167,
+  "model": "gpt-5.5",
+  "output_tokens": 7253,
+  "role": "predictor",
+  "run_id": "20260629T020846Z",
+  "schema_version": "1.0"
+}