diff --git a/resources/ResourceFile_HIV.xlsx b/resources/ResourceFile_HIV.xlsx
index 00f7b684db..767697a349 100644
--- a/resources/ResourceFile_HIV.xlsx
+++ b/resources/ResourceFile_HIV.xlsx
@@ -1,3 +1,3 @@
 version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
-oid sha256:b34a88635b02ee8a465462c8eb67a485d721c9159a5bba1df8e63609b803ebe9
-size 161679
+oid sha256:ac6c8d481b1df585ca3051148367644294252f701069f0c95b6a88f01076753f
+size 161691
diff --git a/src/scripts/hiv/projections_jan2023/analysis_logged_deviance.py b/src/scripts/hiv/projections_jan2023/analysis_logged_deviance.py
index 7a2af7fbed..564af4629f 100644
--- a/src/scripts/hiv/projections_jan2023/analysis_logged_deviance.py
+++ b/src/scripts/hiv/projections_jan2023/analysis_logged_deviance.py
@@ -87,7 +87,7 @@
 )
 
 # set the scenario
-sim.modules["Hiv"].parameters["do_scaleup"] = True
+sim.modules["Hiv"].parameters["do_scaleup"] = False
 sim.modules["Hiv"].parameters["scaleup_start_year"] = 2019
 # sim.modules["Tb"].parameters["scenario"] = scenario
 # sim.modules["Tb"].parameters["scenario_start_date"] = Date(2010, 1, 1)
diff --git a/src/tlo/methods/hiv.py b/src/tlo/methods/hiv.py
index d6455cc861..81a0a3d286 100644
--- a/src/tlo/methods/hiv.py
+++ b/src/tlo/methods/hiv.py
@@ -339,6 +339,11 @@ def __init__(self, name=None, resourcefilepath=None, run_with_checks=False):
             Types.REAL,
             "Probability that a male will be circumcised, if HIV-negative, following testing",
         ),
+        "increase_in_prob_circ_2019": Parameter(
+            Types.REAL,
+            "increase in probability that a male will be circumcised, if HIV-negative, following testing"
+            "from 2019 onwards",
+        ),
         "prob_circ_for_child_before_2020": Parameter(
             Types.REAL,
             "Probability that a male aging <15 yrs will be circumcised before year 2020",
@@ -597,6 +602,11 @@ def _build_linear_models(self):
             p["prob_circ_after_hiv_test"],
             Predictor("hv_inf").when(False, 1.0).otherwise(0.0),
             Predictor("sex").when("M", 1.0).otherwise(0.0),
+            Predictor("year",
+                      external=True,
+                      conditions_are_mutually_exclusive=True,
+                      conditions_are_exhaustive=True).when("<2019", 1)
+            .otherwise(p["increase_in_prob_circ_2019"])
         )
 
         # Linear model for circumcision for male and aging <15 yrs who spontaneously presents for VMMC
@@ -2418,7 +2428,8 @@ def apply(self, person_id, squeeze_factor):
                     # If person is a man, and not circumcised, then consider referring to VMMC
                     if (person["sex"] == "M") & (~person["li_is_circ"]):
                         x = self.module.lm["lm_circ"].predict(
-                            df.loc[[person_id]], self.module.rng
+                            df.loc[[person_id]], self.module.rng,
+                            year=self.sim.date.year,
                         )
                         if x:
                             self.sim.modules["HealthSystem"].schedule_hsi_event(