-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
Copy pathref.bib
1293 lines (1160 loc) · 36.7 KB
/
ref.bib
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
501
502
503
504
505
506
507
508
509
510
511
512
513
514
515
516
517
518
519
520
521
522
523
524
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
534
535
536
537
538
539
540
541
542
543
544
545
546
547
548
549
550
551
552
553
554
555
556
557
558
559
560
561
562
563
564
565
566
567
568
569
570
571
572
573
574
575
576
577
578
579
580
581
582
583
584
585
586
587
588
589
590
591
592
593
594
595
596
597
598
599
600
601
602
603
604
605
606
607
608
609
610
611
612
613
614
615
616
617
618
619
620
621
622
623
624
625
626
627
628
629
630
631
632
633
634
635
636
637
638
639
640
641
642
643
644
645
646
647
648
649
650
651
652
653
654
655
656
657
658
659
660
661
662
663
664
665
666
667
668
669
670
671
672
673
674
675
676
677
678
679
680
681
682
683
684
685
686
687
688
689
690
691
692
693
694
695
696
697
698
699
700
701
702
703
704
705
706
707
708
709
710
711
712
713
714
715
716
717
718
719
720
721
722
723
724
725
726
727
728
729
730
731
732
733
734
735
736
737
738
739
740
741
742
743
744
745
746
747
748
749
750
751
752
753
754
755
756
757
758
759
760
761
762
763
764
765
766
767
768
769
770
771
772
773
774
775
776
777
778
779
780
781
782
783
784
785
786
787
788
789
790
791
792
793
794
795
796
797
798
799
800
801
802
803
804
805
806
807
808
809
810
811
812
813
814
815
816
817
818
819
820
821
822
823
824
825
826
827
828
829
830
831
832
833
834
835
836
837
838
839
840
841
842
843
844
845
846
847
848
849
850
851
852
853
854
855
856
857
858
859
860
861
862
863
864
865
866
867
868
869
870
871
872
873
874
875
876
877
878
879
880
881
882
883
884
885
886
887
888
889
890
891
892
893
894
895
896
897
898
899
900
901
902
903
904
905
906
907
908
909
910
911
912
913
914
915
916
917
918
919
920
921
922
923
924
925
926
927
928
929
930
931
932
933
934
935
936
937
938
939
940
941
942
943
944
945
946
947
948
949
950
951
952
953
954
955
956
957
958
959
960
961
962
963
964
965
966
967
968
969
970
971
972
973
974
975
976
977
978
979
980
981
982
983
984
985
986
987
988
989
990
991
992
993
994
995
996
997
998
999
1000
@article{baker2013,
title={Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games},
author={Baker, Rose D and McHale, Ian G},
journal={International Journal of Forecasting},
volume={29},
number={1},
pages={122--130},
year={2013},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{koopman2015,
title={A dynamic bivariate Poisson model for analysing and forecasting match results in the English Premier League},
author={Koopman, Siem Jan and Lit, Rutger},
journal={Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)},
volume={178},
number={1},
pages={167--186},
year={2015},
publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@book{box1987,
title={Empirical model-building and response surfaces},
author={Box, George EP and Draper, Norman Richard},
volume={424},
year={1987},
publisher={Wiley New York}
}
@article{neal2011,
title={{MCMC} using {Hamiltonian} dynamics},
author={Neal, Radford M},
journal={Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo},
volume={2},
year={2011}
}
@misc{stan,
author = {{Stan Development Team}},
year = {2015},
title = {Stan: A {C}\texttt{++} Library for Probability and Sampling, Version 2.7.0},
url = {http://mc-stan.org/}
}
@article{cleveland1979,
title={Robust locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplots},
author={Cleveland, William S},
journal={Journal of the American statistical association},
volume={74},
number={368},
pages={829--836},
year={1979},
publisher={Taylor \& Francis Group}
}
@article{kelly1956,
title={A new interpretation of information rate},
author={Kelly Jr, John L},
journal={Information Theory, IRE Transactions on},
volume={2},
number={3},
pages={185--189},
year={1956},
publisher={IEEE}
}
@article{whitrow2007,
title={Algorithms for optimal allocation of bets on many simultaneous events},
author={Whitrow, Chris},
journal={Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics)},
volume={56},
number={5},
pages={607--623},
year={2007},
publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@misc{neal1993,
title={Probabilistic inference using {Markov} chain {Monte} {Carlo} methods},
author={Neal, Radford M},
year={1993},
publisher={Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto Toronto, CA}
}
@article{gelman2013,
title={Two simple examples for understanding posterior p-values whose distributions are far from uniform},
author={Gelman, Andrew},
journal={Electronic Journal of Statistics},
volume={7},
pages={2595--2602},
year={2013},
publisher={Institute of Mathematical Statistics}
}
@article{meng1994,
title={Posterior predictive p-values},
author={Meng, {Xiao-Li}},
journal={The Annals of Statistics},
pages={1142--1160},
year={1994},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@book{moneyball,
title={Moneyball: {The} art of winning an unfair game},
author={Lewis, Michael},
year={2004},
publisher={WW Norton \& Company}
}
@article{pvalueban,
author = {Trafimow, David and Marks, Michael},
title = {Editorial},
journal = {Basic and Applied Social Psychology},
volume = {37},
number = {1},
pages = {1--2},
year = {2015},
doi = {10.1080/01973533.2015.1012991},
URL = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01973533.2015.1012991},
}
@article{doucet2000,
title={On sequential {Monte} {Carlo} sampling methods for {Bayesian} filtering},
author={Doucet, Arnaud and Godsill, Simon and Andrieu, Christophe},
journal={Statistics and computing},
volume={10},
number={3},
pages={197--208},
year={2000},
publisher={Springer}
}
@article{maceachern1994,
title={Subsampling the {Gibbs} sampler},
author={MacEachern, Steven N and Berliner, L Mark},
journal={The American Statistician},
volume={48},
number={3},
pages={188--190},
year={1994},
publisher={Taylor \& Francis}
}
@article{aitkin1991,
title={Posterior {Bayes} factors},
author={Aitkin, Murray},
journal={Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological)},
pages={111--142},
year={1991},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{draper1995,
title={Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty},
author={Draper, David},
journal={Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological)},
pages={45--97},
year={1995},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{gelman1996,
title={Efficient {Metropolis} jumping rules},
author={Gelman, Andrew and Roberts, G and Gilks, W},
journal={Bayesian statistics},
volume={5},
number={599-608},
pages={42},
year={1996}
}
@article{kass1998,
title={Markov chain {Monte} {Carlo} in practice: A roundtable discussion},
author={Kass, Robert E and Carlin, Bradley P and Gelman, Andrew and Neal, Radford M},
journal={The American Statistician},
volume={52},
number={2},
pages={93--100},
year={1998},
publisher={Taylor \& Francis Group}
}
@article{berger2009,
title={The formal definition of reference priors},
author={Berger, James O and Bernardo, Jos{\'e} M and Sun, Dongchu},
journal={The Annals of Statistics},
pages={905--938},
year={2009},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{casella1987,
title={Reconciling {Bayesian} and {Frequentist} evidence in the one-sided testing problem},
author={Casella, George and Berger, Roger L},
journal={Journal of the American Statistical Association},
volume={82},
number={397},
pages={106--111},
year={1987},
publisher={Taylor \& Francis Group}
}
@article{kullback1951,
title={On information and sufficiency},
author={Kullback, Solomon and Leibler, Richard A},
journal={The annals of mathematical statistics},
pages = {79--86},
year={1951},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{berger1992,
title={On the development of reference priors},
author={Berger, James O and Bernardo, Jos{\'e} M},
journal={Bayesian statistics},
volume={4},
number={4},
pages={35--60},
year={1992}
}
@article{bernardo1979,
title={Reference posterior distributions for {Bayesian} inference},
author={Bernardo, Jose M},
journal={Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological)},
pages={113--147},
year={1979},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{bernardo2005,
title={Reference analysis},
author={Bernardo, Jos{\'e} M},
journal={Handbook of statistics},
volume={25},
pages={17--90},
year={2005},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{bayes1763,
title={An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. {By} the late {Rev}. {Mr}. {Bayes},
{FRS} communicated by {Mr}. {Price}, in a letter to {John} {Canton}, {AMFRS}},
author={Mr. Bayes and Price, Mr},
journal={Philosophical Transactions (1683-1775)},
pages={370--418},
year={1763},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@techreport{goddard2003,
title={Modelling football match results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting},
author={Goddard, John and Asimakopoulos, Ioannis},
year={2003},
institution={Working Paper, Department of Economics, Swansea University}
}
@article{scarf2008,
title={The importance of a match in a tournament},
author={Scarf, Philip A and Shi, Xin},
journal={Computers \& Operations Research},
volume={35},
number={7},
pages={2406--2418},
year={2008},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{volf2009,
title={A random point process model for the score in sport matches},
author={Volf, Petr},
journal={IMA Journal of Management Mathematics},
volume={20},
number={2},
pages={121--131},
year={2009},
publisher={IMA}
}
@book{nelsen2007,
title={An introduction to copulas},
author={Nelsen, Roger B},
year={2007},
publisher={Springer Science \& Business Media}
}
@article{mchale2011,
title={Modelling the dependence of goals scored by opposing teams in international soccer matches},
author={McHale, Ian and Scarf, Phil},
journal={Statistical Modelling},
volume={11},
number={3},
pages={219--236},
year={2011},
publisher={SAGE Publications}
}
@article{openmp,
Title = {{OpenMP}: An industry standard {API} for shared-memory programming},
Author = {Dagum, Leonardo and Menon, Ramesh},
Journal = {Computational Science \& Engineering, IEEE},
Number = {1},
Pages = {46--55},
Publisher = {IEEE},
Volume = {5},
Year = {1998}
}
@article{mpi,
title={A high-performance, portable implementation of the {MPI} message passing interface standard},
author={Gropp, William and Lusk, Ewing and Doss, Nathan and Skjellum, Anthony},
journal={Parallel computing},
volume={22},
number={6},
pages={789--828},
year={1996},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{cappe2007,
title={An overview of existing methods and recent advances in sequential {Monte} {Carlo}},
author={Capp{\'e}, Olivier and Godsill, Simon J and Moulines, Eric},
journal={Proceedings of the IEEE},
volume={95},
number={5},
pages={899--924},
year={2007},
publisher={IEEE}
}
@article{roberts1994,
title={On the geometric convergence of the {Gibbs} sampler},
author={Roberts, Gareth O and Polson, Nicholas G},
journal={Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological)},
pages={377--384},
year={1994},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{roberts1996Geometric,
title={Geometric convergence and central limit theorems for multidimensional {Hastings} and {Metropolis} algorithms},
author={Roberts, Gareth O and Tweedie, Richard L},
journal={Biometrika},
volume={83},
number={1},
pages={95--110},
year={1996},
publisher={Biometrika Trust}
}
@article{roberts1996Book,
title={Markov chain concepts related to sampling algorithms},
author={Roberts, Gareth O},
journal={Markov chain Monte Carlo in practice},
volume={57},
year={1996}
}
@article{bedard2008,
title={Optimal acceptance rates for {Metropolis} algorithms: Moving beyond 0.234},
author={Bedard, Mylene},
journal={Stochastic Processes and their Applications},
volume={118},
number={12},
pages={2198--2222},
year={2008},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{roberts1997,
title={Weak convergence and optimal scaling of random walk {Metropolis} algorithms},
author={Roberts, Gareth O and Gelman, Andrew and Gilks, Walter R and others},
journal={The annals of applied probability},
volume={7},
number={1},
pages={110--120},
year={1997},
publisher={Institute of Mathematical Statistics}
}
@article{gibson1998,
title={Estimating parameters in stochastic compartmental models using {Markov} chain methods},
author={Gibson, Gavin J and Renshaw, Eric},
journal={Mathematical Medicine and Biology},
volume={15},
number={1},
pages={19--40},
year={1998},
publisher={IMA}
}
@article{streftaris2004,
title={Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemics in closed populations},
author={Streftaris, George and Gibson, Gavin J},
journal={Statistical Modelling},
volume={4},
number={1},
pages={63--75},
year={2004},
publisher={SAGE Publications}
}
@article{ioannidis2005,
title={Why most published research findings are false},
author={Ioannidis, John PA},
journal={Chance},
volume={18},
number={4},
pages={40--47},
year={2005},
publisher={Taylor \& Francis}
}
@article{colquhoun2014,
title={An investigation of the false discovery rate and the misinterpretation of p-values},
author={Colquhoun, David},
journal={Royal Society Open Science},
volume={1},
number={3},
year={2014},
publisher={The Royal Society}
}
@article{hitchcock2003,
title={A history of the {Metropolis}-{Hastings} algorithm},
author={Hitchcock, David B},
journal={The American Statistician},
volume={57},
number={4},
year={2003}
}
@article{spanos2013,
title={Who should be afraid of the {Jeffreys}-{Lindley} paradox?},
author={Spanos, Aris},
journal={Philosophy of Science},
volume={80},
number={1},
pages={73--93},
year={2013},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{robert2014,
title={On the {Jeffreys}-{Lindley} Paradox},
author={Robert, Christian P},
journal={Philosophy of Science},
volume={81},
number={2},
pages={216--232},
year={2014},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{chopin2002,
title={A sequential particle filter method for static models},
author={Chopin, Nicolas},
journal={Biometrika},
volume={89},
number={3},
pages={539--552},
year={2002},
publisher={Biometrika Trust}
}
@article{neal2001,
title={Annealed importance sampling},
author={Neal, Radford M},
journal={Statistics and Computing},
volume={11},
number={2},
pages={125--139},
year={2001},
publisher={Springer}
}
@article{del2006,
title={Sequential {Monte} {Carlo} samplers},
author={Del Moral, Pierre and Doucet, Arnaud and Jasra, Ajay},
journal={Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology)},
volume={68},
number={3},
pages={411--436},
year={2006},
publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@book{hastie2009,
title={The elements of statistical learning},
author={Hastie, Trevor and Tibshirani, Robert and Friedman, Jerome and Hastie, T and Friedman, J and Tibshirani, R},
edition={Second},
year={2009},
publisher={Springer}
}
@article{tibshirani1996,
title={Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso},
author={Tibshirani, Robert},
journal={Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological)},
pages={267--288},
year={1996},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@book{hosmer2013,
title={Applied logistic regression},
author={Hosmer Jr, David W and Lemeshow, Stanley and Sturdivant, Rodney X},
volume={398},
year={2013},
publisher={John Wiley \& Sons}
}
@article{lewis1979,
title={Simulation of nonhomogeneous {Poisson} processes by thinning},
author={Lewis, Peter A and Shedler, Gerald S},
journal={Naval Research Logistics Quarterly},
volume={26},
number={3},
pages={403--413},
year={1979},
publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@book{cinlar2013,
title={Introduction to stochastic processes},
author={Cinlar, Erhan},
year={2013},
publisher={Courier Dover Publications}
}
@article{cox1966,
title={The statistical analysis of series of events},
author={Cox, David Roxbee and Lewis, Peter AW},
journal={Monographs on Applied Probability and Statistics, London: Chapman and Hall},
volume={1},
year={1966}
}
@article{constantinou2012,
title={pi-football: A {Bayesian} network model for forecasting Association Football match outcomes},
author={Constantinou, Anthony C and Fenton, Norman E and Neil, Martin},
journal={Knowledge-Based Systems},
volume={36},
pages={322--339},
year={2012},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@misc{radford2008,
author = {Radford Neal},
title = {The Harmonic Mean of the Likelihood: Worst {Monte} {Carlo} Method Ever},
year = {2008},
url = {www.radfordneal.wordpress.com/2008/08/17/the-harmonic-mean-of-the-likelihood-worst-monte-carlo-method-ever},
note = {[Online; accessed 2-April-2015]}
}
@misc{championsLeagueMoney,
author = {UEFA},
title = {Payments to 2012/13 {Champions} {League} clubs},
year = {2013},
url = {www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/uefaorg/Finance/01/97/52/97/1975297\_DOWNLOAD.pdf},
note = {[Online; accessed 26-August-2015]}
}
@misc{europaLeagueMoney,
author = {UEFA},
title = {Payments to 2012/13 {Europa} {League} clubs},
year = {2013},
url = {www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/uefaorg/Finance/01/97/53/15/1975315\_DOWNLOAD.pdf},
note = {[Online; accessed 26-August-2015]}
}
@misc{squeakyBumTime,
author = {Alex Ferguson},
title = {{Sir} {Alex} {Ferguson's} best quotes},
year = {2003},
url = {www.theguardian.com/football/2013/may/08/sir-alex-ferguson-best-quotes},
note = {[Online; accessed 26-August-2015]}
}
@misc{raceToAvoidEurope,
author = {Lewis Potton},
title = {The Race to Avoid {Europa} {League} Qualification Starts Now},
year = {2015},
url = {www.90min.com/posts/2080889-the-race-to-avoid-europa-league-qualification-starts-now},
note = {[Online; accessed 28-August-2015]}
}
@misc{spursAvoidEurople,
author = {David Hytner},
title = {Tottenham's {Mauricio} {Pochettino}: avoiding {Europa} {League} could help us},
year = {2015},
url = {www.theguardian.com/football/2015/apr/23/tottenham-mauricio-pochettino-europa-league},
note = {[Online; accessed 28-August-2015]}
}
@misc{battleToAvoidEurople,
author = {Greg Lea},
title = {The battle to avoid the Europa League},
year = {2015},
url = {www.goal.com/en-gb/news/2915/europa-league/2015/04/24/11060642/the-battle-to-avoid-the-europa-league},
note = {[Online; accessed 28-August-2015]}
}
@misc{Senn2015,
author = {Stephen Senn},
title = {The pathetic P-value},
year = {2015},
url = {www.errorstatistics.com/2015/03/16/stephen-senn-the-pathetic-p-value-guest-post},
note = {[Online; accessed 10-July-2015]}
}
@misc{bettingShops,
author = {Vanessa Barford and Sam Judah},
title = {The street with 18 betting shops},
year = {2013},
url = {www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22934305},
note = {[Online; accessed 8-September-2015]}
}
@article{chib2001,
title={Marginal likelihood from the {Metropolis}-{Hastings} output},
author={Chib, Siddhartha and Jeliazkov, Ivan},
journal={Journal of the American Statistical Association},
volume={96},
number={453},
pages={270--281},
year={2001},
publisher={Taylor \& Francis}
}
@article{einicke2012,
title={Smoothing, filtering and prediction: Estimating the past, present and future},
author={Einicke, Garry A},
journal={New York: InTech},
year={2012}
}
@inproceedings{julier1997,
title={New extension of the {Kalman} filter to nonlinear systems},
author={Julier, Simon J and Uhlmann, Jeffrey K},
booktitle={AeroSense'97},
pages={182--193},
year={1997},
organization={International Society for Optics and Photonics}
}
@article{kalman1960,
title={A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems},
author={Kalman, Rudolph Emil},
journal={Journal of Fluids Engineering},
volume={82},
number={1},
pages={35--45},
year={1960},
publisher={American Society of Mechanical Engineers}
}
@article{nummiaro2003,
title={An adaptive color-based particle filter},
author={Nummiaro, Katja and Koller-Meier, Esther and Van Gool, Luc},
journal={Image and vision computing},
volume={21},
number={1},
pages={99--110},
year={2003},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{gustafsson2002,
title={Particle filters for positioning, navigation, and tracking},
author={Gustafsson, Fredrik and Gunnarsson, Fredrik and Bergman, Niclas and Forssell, Urban and Jansson, Jonas and Karlsson, Rickard and Nordlund, P-J},
journal={Signal Processing, IEEE Transactions on},
volume={50},
number={2},
pages={425--437},
year={2002},
publisher={IEEE}
}
@inproceedings{montemerlo2002,
title={Conditional particle filters for simultaneous mobile robot localization and people-tracking},
author={Montemerlo, D and Thrun, Sebastian and Whittaker, William},
booktitle={Robotics and Automation, 2002. Proceedings. ICRA'02. IEEE International Conference on},
volume={1},
pages={695--701},
year={2002},
organization={IEEE}
}
@inproceedings{schulz2001,
title={Tracking multiple moving targets with a mobile robot using particle filters and statistical data association},
author={Schulz, Dirk and Burgard, Wolfram and Fox, Dieter and Cremers, Armin B},
booktitle={Robotics and Automation, 2001. Proceedings 2001 ICRA. IEEE International Conference on},
volume={2},
pages={1665--1670},
year={2001},
organization={IEEE}
}
@article{rekleitis2004,
title={A particle filter tutorial for mobile robot localization},
author={Rekleitis, Ioannis M},
journal={Centre for Intelligent Machines, McGill University, Tech. Rep. TR-CIM-04-02},
year={2004}
}
@article{burnham2004,
title={Multimodel inference understanding {AIC} and {BIC} in model selection},
author={Burnham, Kenneth P and Anderson, David R},
journal={Sociological methods \& research},
volume={33},
number={2},
pages={261--304},
year={2004},
publisher={Sage Publications}
}
@book{geweke1991,
title={Evaluating the accuracy of sampling-based approaches to the calculation of posterior moments},
author={Geweke, John and others},
volume={196},
year={1991},
publisher={Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Research Department}
}
@article{brooks1998,
title={General methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations},
author={Brooks, Stephen P and Gelman, Andrew},
journal={Journal of computational and graphical statistics},
volume={7},
number={4},
pages={434--455},
year={1998},
publisher={Taylor \& Francis}
}
@article{gelman1992,
title={Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences},
author={Gelman, Andrew and Rubin, Donald B},
journal={Statistical science},
pages={457--472},
year={1992},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{geyer2011,
title={Introduction to {Markov} Chain {Monte} {Carlo}},
author={Geyer, Charles},
journal={Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo},
pages={3--48},
year={2011}
}
@misc{wikiExample,
author = {Wikipedia},
title = {Lindley's paradox - {Wikipedia}, The Free Encyclopedia},
year = {2014},
url = {http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindley\%27s\_paradox},
note = {[Online; accessed 11-December-2014]}
}
@misc{EPLmoney,
author = {EPL},
title = {Premier League announces 2011/12 broadcast payments},
year = {2012},
url = {www.premierleague.com/en-gb/news/news/2011-12/may/broadcast-payments-to-premier-league-clubs},
note = {[Online; accessed 12-January-2015]}
}
@article{evans1995,
title={Methods for approximating integrals in statistics with special emphasis on {Bayesian} integration problems},
author={Evans, Michael and Swartz, Tim},
journal={Statistical Science},
pages={254--272},
year={1995},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{lindley1957,
title={A Statistical Paradox},
author={Lindley, Dennis V},
journal={Biometrika},
pages={187--192},
year={1957},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@book{jeffreys1939,
title={Theory of Probability},
author={Jeffreys, Harold},
year={1939},
publisher={Oxford University Press}
}
@inproceedings{jeffreys1946,
title={An invariant form for the prior probability in estimation problems},
author={Jeffreys, Harold},
booktitle={Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
volume={186},
issue={1007},
pages={453--461},
year={1946},
organization={The Royal Society}
}
@article{kass1995,
title={Bayes factors},
author={Kass, Robert E and Raftery, Adrian E},
journal={Journal of the American Statistical Association},
volume={90},
number={430},
pages={773--795},
year={1995},
publisher={Taylor \& Francis Group}
}
@article{madigan1994,
title={Model selection and accounting for model uncertainty in graphical models using {Occam's} window},
author={Madigan, David and Raftery, Adrian E},
journal={Journal of the American Statistical Association},
volume={89},
number={428},
pages={1535--1546},
year={1994},
publisher={Taylor \& Francis}
}
@article{hoeting1999,
title={Bayesian Model Averaging: A Tutorial},
author={Hoeting, Jennifer A and Madigan, David and Raftery, Adrian E and Volinsky, Chris T},
journal={Statistical science},
pages={382--401},
year={1999},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{vehtari2015,
title={Efficient implementation of leave-one-out cross-validation and {WAIC} for evaluating fitted {Bayesian} models},
author={Vehtari, Aki and Gelman, Andrew and Gabry, Jonah},
journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:1507.04544},
year={2015}
}
@incollection{liu2001,
title={Combined parameter and state estimation in simulation-based filtering},
author={Liu, Jane and West, Mike},
booktitle={Sequential Monte Carlo methods in practice},
pages={197--223},
year={2001},
publisher={Springer}
}
@article{WinBUGS,
title = {{WinBUGS} -- A {Bayesian} Modelling Framework: concepts, structure, and extensibility},
author = {Lunn, David J. and Thomas, Andrew and Best, Nicky and Spiegelhalter, David},
journal = {Statistics and Computing},
issue_date = {October 2000},
volume = {10},
number = {4},
month = oct,
year = {2000},
issn = {0960-3174},
pages = {325--337},
numpages = {13},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008929526011},
doi = {10.1023/A:1008929526011},
acmid = {599385},
publisher = {Kluwer Academic Publishers},
address = {Hingham, MA, USA},
keywords = {BUGS, Markov chain Monte Carlo, WinBUGS, directed acyclic graphs, object-orientation, run-time linking, type extension},
}
@Book{ggplot2,
author = {Hadley Wickham},
title = {ggplot2: elegant graphics for data analysis},
publisher = {Springer New York},
year = {2009},
isbn = {978-0-387-98140-6},
url = {http://had.co.nz/ggplot2/book},
}
@article{dellaportas2002,
title={On {Bayesian} model and variable selection using {MCMC}},
author={Dellaportas, Petros and Forster, Jonathan J and Ntzoufras, Ioannis},
journal={Statistics and Computing},
volume={12},
number={1},
pages={27--36},
year={2002},
publisher={Springer}
}
@article{hastie2012,
title={Model choice using reversible jump {Markov} chain {Monte} {Carlo}},
author={Hastie, David I and Green, Peter J},
journal={Statistica Neerlandica},
volume={66},
number={3},
pages={309--338},
year={2012},
publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@misc{punska1999,
title={Bayesian segmentation of piecewise constant autoregressive processes using {MCMC} methods},
author={Punska, O and Doucet, C Andrieu A and Fitzgerald, WJ and Andrieu, C and Doucet, A},
year={1999},
publisher={Citeseer}
}
@article{geman1984,
title={Stochastic relaxation, {Gibbs} distributions, and the {Bayesian} restoration of images},
author={Geman, Stuart and Geman, Donald},
journal={Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, IEEE Transactions on},
number={6},
volume={6},
pages={721--741},
year={1984},
publisher={IEEE}
}
@article{link2012,
title={On thinning of chains in {MCMC}},
author={Link, William A and Eaton, Mitchell J},
journal={Methods in Ecology and Evolution},
volume={3},
number={1},
pages={112--115},
year={2012},
publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@article{tierney1998,
title={A note on {Metropolis}-{Hastings} kernels for general state spaces},
author={Tierney, Luke},
journal={Annals of Applied Probability},
pages={1--9},
year={1998},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{tierney1996,
title={Introduction to general state-space {Markov} chain theory},
author={Tierney, Luke},
journal={Markov chain Monte Carlo in practice},
pages={59--74},
year={1996},
publisher={London: Chapman and Hall}
}
@article{tierney1994,
title={Markov chains for exploring posterior distributions},
author={Tierney, Luke},
journal={the Annals of Statistics},
pages={1701--1728},
year={1994},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{green1995,
title={Reversible jump {Markov} chain {Monte} {Carlo} computation and {Bayesian} model determination},
author={Green, Peter J},
journal={Biometrika},
volume={82},
number={4},
pages={711--732},
year={1995},
publisher={Biometrika Trust}
}
@article{spiegelhalter2002,
title={Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit},
author={Spiegelhalter, David J and Best, Nicola G and Carlin, Bradley P and Van Der Linde, Angelika},
journal={Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology)},
volume={64},
number={4},
pages={583--639},
year={2002},
publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@Manual{nlopt2010,
title={The {NLopt} nonlinear-optimization package},
author={Johnson, Steven G},
year={2010},
url = {http://ab-initio.mit.edu/nlopt}
}
@PhdThesis{subplex1990,
title = {Functional stability analysis of numerical algorithms},
author={Rowan, Thomas Harvey},
school = {Department of Computer Sciences},
institution = {University of Texas at Austin},
year = {1990}
}