Model structural overhang vs. bleed-off (fix net-benefit triviality)#2
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Addresses the core critique that "above-target" is not the same as "liquidate" — under steady demand you pause replenishment and let stock bleed off; you only clear inventory that won't self-resolve. Model: - New `clearWindowMonths` patience window. Above-target stock that sells through within it is "Bleeding Off" (no clearance); only the remainder is a "Structural Overhang" and the actionable base for carry/clear. - Carry-vs-clear and recapture now compute on the overhang, not gross excess, so the rule stops trivially firing on everything. - Recalibrated demand so the slow segments (EV, luxury) carry genuinely soft run-rates → a real months-long overhang, telling the EV-glut / slow-luxury story for the right reason. Fast pools (Tucson) read "Bleeding Off". Every documented figure reproduces from the data. - New statuses Overhang / Bleeding Off; dashboard gains a bleed-off window slider, a months-to-clear reality check, and per-row gating. Docs (METHODOLOGY.md): - §3/§5 rewritten for the two-step rule; §7 baseline refreshed. - New §11 (OEM-owned vs dealer-floorplanned capital) and §12 (the liquidation channel ladder: incentive / fleet / auction + residual hit). Baseline now: $2.80B deployed, $603M above target, of which only $320M is structural overhang; $58M/yr carry, $19M clearance, $301M recaptured, $38M net, $216M stockout gap fully covered. Verified: tsc --noEmit clean; vite build; data reproduces docs exactly. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Why
Resolves the critique that surfaced in review: "above-target" ≠ "liquidate." Under steady demand you don't dump inventory — you pause replenishment and let it bleed off. The previous rule compared an annual carry against a one-time clearance loss, so it fired on virtually everything. This makes the act/hold decision honest and per-pool.
Model change
clearWindowMonths, default 2). Above-target stock that sells through within the window at current demand is Bleeding Off (no clearance). Only what's left is a Structural Overhang — the actionable base for carrying-cost and clearance math.Docs
METHODOLOGY.md§3/§5 rewritten for the two-step rule; §7 baseline refreshed.README.md— approach, key results, structure, and defensibility updated.Baseline (every figure reproduces from the data)
Verification
tsc --noEmitclean ·vite buildsucceedsHYUNDAI_INVENTORY+ model formulas reproduces the documented baseline exactly (MATCH ✓).🤖 Generated with Claude Code